10/3/2016 – Matthew for the End of the Week

Good morning,

Will make this relatively brief… brief by my standards, at least.

Models are in excellent agreement Hurricane Matthew will track north up the East Coast this week, and pass to our east next weekend.  Given how far away the storm is, any small subtle shifts in the track/trajectory would have large consequences on how close it comes to us.  Currently, however, I’m not seeing any models that have a disaster forecast; a disaster forecast would involve the center tracking either over head or just to our west.  However, we are far from out of the woods on this one, and many models still show us getting some rain and wind out of it Saturday into Sunday.

For the weather hobbyists or those just interested, there are a few models that are hurricane-specific… run solely for hurricanes, since these type of storms “obey” a different set of rules than our standard Nor’easters and such.  The latest forecast from one of these models, the GFDL, to me seems to offer a good idea of where this thing is headed,  You can see that model’s forecast by clicking here.  Another model run for this hurricane offers the same idea… that model is called the HWRF, and can be seen here.

A few other notables…. the European turns the storm east much earlier and  is of no consequence to the eastern U.S.  The GFS has been remarkably consistent tracking up right along the coast, giving us some winds and rain, but not a direct hit…. and the Navy NAVGEM is similar. The Canadian Model went from an End-of-the-World forecast last week to a more offshore forecast that like the European, would have little or no impact on the East Coast.

Anyhow, I have to run.  I’ll keep you posted on where this thing is headed.

Talk to you soon.

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