10/4/2016 – Threat Diminishing for MD

Good morning,

We are getting more clarification on where Hurricane Matthew is headed after its journey through the Bahamas. In short, the storm will stay to our south and east, but we may still feel the impacts. Anyone thinking about going to the Carolinas should keep a very close eye on this, while the MD/DE beaches will likely be spared… though these folks should also still closely watch the storm.

Latest models are in much better agreement that Matthew will turn northwest toward the Southeast Coast this week, then turn back to the northeast, paralleling the Carolina Coast before tracking out to sea. As per usual, the final track will determine who gets what… and as I keep saying over and over, we’re far from being in the clear – or vice versa – with this one.

If the current model forecasts hold… (and I still like the GFDL and HWFR hurricane-specific forecasts)… we will see increasing winds and periods of rain Saturday. Rain could be heavy if Matthew tracks far enough west, but right now, it looks like the heavy rain will stay to our south and east on Saturday. Winds will continue gusty Saturday night as Matthew accelerates away from the region. Sunday will be breezy but pleasant. Overall, the threat of major impacts from Mathew appear to be going down somewhat… though I do caution this could be a “blip” in the forecast models, or we could very well trend toward sunny skies if the forecast track keeps shifting south and east.

For the beaches…

MD/DE: Some coastal flooding likely with a persistent east wind in advance of the storm enhancing the water build up on the coast. Current model wind forecast suggests wind speed of 20-30 mph sustained on Saturday, with higher gusts. However, the strongest winds will actually develop after the center has passed, when the wind direction will switch to northwesterly. This will help mitigate the coastal flooding threat somewhat. If the storm recurves more to the east, the beaches may very well end up with nice weather… albeit windy.

Carolinas: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are likely. However, the storm’s rapid movement should make this a quick hitter, and I’m beginning to think that outside of a few rough hours, these folks too may be spared a huge impact. But if I had to pick anywhere within driving distance that is still quite vulnerable, it would be here.

Anyway, I have to get back to work. Will keep you updated


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