10/5/2016 – Some Models Doing a 180

S F D…. make of those letter what you will.

Note: This is just an FYI.. some behind-the-scenes info. I’m not ready to bail on the “Matthew will stay offshore” idea just yet, but I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t let you know this could change, and without much notice.

We look for model trends when giving you a fcst. The models have been trending for the last two days farther south and east with Matthew, easing any concerns locally as well as for those traveling south. To my dismay, the latest model runs – using the balloon data launched at 12z (GMT, or 8 am, EDT) – are rolling in, and there are some serious Oh $#its in the group. I’m not gonna bail on the idea that Matthew is going to stay offshore just yet and remain well to our south, but I’ve got one foot off the ledge…

The early model data has come back markedly closer to the coast. In fact, some are suggesting that Matthew actually interacts with the cold front, as opposed to being bounced by it, and just trudges right up the I-95 corridor; this idea seems a bit far fetched… but not out of the realm of possibility.

Nevertheless, Florida, which appeared to be primed to escape this, now appears to be at the greatest risk. The Carolinas, especially from Cape Hatteras south, also now appear to be back in the crosshairs. For now, I think we’re fine up this way… but we’ve definitely inched back closer to “Uh oh” for the Mid-Atlantic Beaches as well.

I really want to see what the Intermediate Advisory at 2pm by the NHC, two hurricane models (GFDL and HWRF ~ 3 pm), and perhaps even the NHC Full Advisory at 5 pm, before making a final call. That will follow.

Talk soon.


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