10/7/2016 – alarming SREFs

Highly confident this is a very low confidence forecast. I’m not providing a forecast here… sorry. Just some behind the scenes info, and a serious muddying of the waters for us locally.

First, Matthew is right on the FL coast… see it here on this nice radar loop provided by the Univ of Wisconsin.

Early morning prelim model data offers an All Or Nothing take on our weather forecast for Saturday. The data I’m talking about is called the Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREFs), and these are high-resolution short-term models, but largely experimental, that are the first to roll in. While there is often some “Take these with a grain of salt” to them, it’s a bit alarming to see such a huge disparity for a forecast that’s essentially valid 24 hours from now. The SREF forecast charts valid for tomorrow feature everything from dry, perhaps even sunny weather to torrential rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding along the Bay and at the Mid-Atlantic beaches.

Click here to see a snapshot of the SREF forecast for 5 pm tomorrow evening. Each panel is a different model, the lines denotes pressure, and the shaded colors denote 3-hour rainfall (green is moderate, yellow is heavy, red is very heavy, white/grey is extremely very incredibly heavy). There are some that clearly keep Mathew to the south and out of the picture (literally), and there are others that are like “Meh… let’s bring it up I-95…”

I will shoot you an update when the rest of the data rolls in, but this is certainly a bit of an alarming twist.


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