9/28/2016 – Heavy Rain Threat

The heavy rain threat remains… but there’s wide disparity amongst the models where the core of the heaviest rainfall (5-10″ perhaps) will be. Case in point, this morning’s short-range “ensemble” models total rainfall thru Saturday afternoon (courtesy of the PSU Ewall) can be seen by clicking here or looking below. Anything in blue is less than an inch, green is 1 to 1.5″, and red is 2″+, while the greys are 4″ or more (white is +8 inches)…

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I don’t expect you all to dwell on this map or even totally understand it, just note each image denotes a separate model run, and the heavy rain is denoted by the dark reds, greys, and white… and while they all agree heavy rain is coming, they all have small but significant differences. The mean of all the models is the larger map in the top center. Anyway, it’s safe to say periods of heavy rain are likely starting this afternoon and lasting into Saturday morning. It won’t be non-stop, and there may even be peaks of sunshine… but the rain could at times be torrential. Again, the local radar will be your best friend.

Some subtle changes:

1) The models are slower with getting this out of here. For my family, this does not bode well for Saturday’s reunion. The worst of it should be gone, but the models show the threat of rain lingering into Saturday night due to our blocking high to the north.

2) A few folks pinged me about travel concerns for the weekend; for both the PA-bound crew and NY folks, the forecast is worse… wetter for sure. The PA folks may run into heavy rain, while the NY crowd will likely be spared the deluge that’s coming our way.


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