What is making this forecast a bear is the amount of warm air being pulled into the storm aloft (~5,000 ft up) as it comes up the coast. This is vastly different from model to model. The NAM keeps the warm layer aloft to our east, and pounds us with snow. Meanwhile, the European model from this morning has temps well above freezing ~ 5,000 ft up by 10 am on Thrs, and is a sucky sleet and rain fest. Even the GFS and Canadian Models from this morning pulled this stunt at some point on Thrs, where snow changed to sleet and rain due to warm air aloft. Man… if we stay all snow, this could end up 10 to 20″… but if it doesn’t (which was how it appeared this afternoon), then 4 to 8″, maybe 10″ before changing over. Suspect we’ll be sorting this out into Thrs morning, cos we really don’t know for sure until the bloody thing starts to come up the coast. Clear as mud, eh?!
This is looking like a three-part storm:
On to what is rolling in at this hour. The Short-Range Ensemble models (SREFs) offer zero clarity… with everything to 1-2 feet of snow to snow and a whole lot of rain. More notable is the latest NAM (00z), which is still all about a heavy snow event… keeping the warm layer aloft to our east. So far, that’s all we have.
Well, will update u tomorrow.