Curse of the Drought Monitor

Been wicked busy with week 1 of the US Drought Monitor (USDM) in the books, and have 1 more week to go. The first week of my USDM shift featured unexpectedly heavy snow (4-9″) south of DC on Monday, and a slow-to-let-go ice event (and subsequent Winter Storm Warning) Tuesday morning over much of the area. On top of that, had the nation-wide Comcast outage on Monday. So, naturally, with me doing the USDM, what else could happen?!

Well, models are teasing up a late-season winter storm for next week. While I’d normally go on and on about this, I’m trying to get some things done to allot me the needed time for USDM work next week. So this’ll be short (and from a tall guy, that’s saying something).

A cold front will come thru Sunday… and while cold air won’t blast in behind it, temperatures will drop steadily during the afternoon and particularly Sunday night.

Monday, the action appears likely to remain to our south along the front as it stalls, though I have some concerns that the pcp may be slow to let go as the front pushes south, or worse yet, may be quick to return as everything turns around and heads back north.

Tuesday and Wednesday… all sorts of craziness in the models, with no 2 solutions the same. The European Model (I am not worthy…) has been remarkably consistent, however, with a coastal low that brings rain and snow back into the region Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. It shows the storm transitioning to all-snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

This is still a-ways off, and I really haven’t had the time to devote to this. Will update you tomorrow, and try and get some more concrete ideas over the upcoming weekend.


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