Increasingly “interesting” Weather

Good afternoon,

While there’s nothing imminent just yet, wanted to provide an early FYI inre to some potential winter weather on the docket.

1)  Tomorrow (Thrs) morning, some snow is possible over nrn MD… ~ I-70/695 north.  Not an accumulation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the early risers (includes me going to work) see wet snow.  Should change to rain by mid-day.  Rain from I-70/Baltimore south.

2)  New Years weekend looks pretty benign.  A cold front will swing thru Saturday night, perhaps accompanied by light rain.  New Years Day (Sunday) will feature a building high to our north (uh oh… (or woo hoo!)) but dry and cold.

3)  Early next week (Monday-Tuesday):  While we still have a storm track to our west (and Quebecian Lows), the pattern is beginning to change… and the first new wrinkle will be a high to our north, setting the stage for ice or snow on Monday.  Much of this will be contingent on how strong the high is (and how much cold air it pushes south into the region), but it’s starting to look dicey.  No other info beyond that… so pls don’t ask just yet.  The general theme I’m seeing is ice… and not so much snow.

4)  Longer term…. Jan 8-15:  A Negative NAO.  Long-time WxListers know I go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about blocking highs (or lack thereof) over the northern Atlantic.  There is an Index called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO for short, if you want to sound super cool) which measures this; a “negative” phase of the NAO means you’ve got a blocking high (or proxy) that ups our chances for cold and snow.  A positive NAO is the exact opposite, and I affectionately call it the North Atlantic Shop-Vac; it sucks all of the cold air out of North America.  Anyhow, models show a pretty strongly negative NAO for the second week of January, putting us in the cross hairs for some really cool (and cold) weather (and if you don’t think it’s really cool, then just simply respond to this email with “REMOVE” in the subject line!)

Anyway, the NAO is a really good indicator of “increased snow potential”.  It doesn’t guarantee snow, but it ramps us your odds a lot.

I’ll keep you posted.

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