Jiggy Analogs, but Models Not so Much

A very nice winter-storm analog page put together by the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems · Saint Louis University provides some food for thought for this upcoming storm.  While the models are more or less insisting this storm bypasses us, the analogs, based on the 12z (7 am EST) run of the NAM from Thursday, are certainly interesting.

The mean snowfall for the Top 15 analogs, shown below, certainly is tilted toward a snowy event.

This map depicts the mean snowfall of the top 15 analogs to the current storm unfolding across the eastern U.S.  The heavier snow amounts are a function of some big hitters, with the individual storms shown in the next image.  This map is courtesy of Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems · Saint Louis University.

This map depicts the mean snowfall of the top 15 analogs to the current storm unfolding across the eastern U.S. The heavier snow amounts are a function of some big hitters, with the individual storms shown in the next image. This map is courtesy of Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems · Saint Louis University.

I’ve also included a snapshot of all the top analogs below; the date is at the top.  The scale can be found on the preceding “mean snowfall” map.

This composite of all the top analogs, rated from the best (top left) to least (lower right) offers some hope for the pending winter storm.  Map courtesy of Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems · Saint Louis University.

This composite of all the top analogs, rated from the best (top left) to least (lower right) offers some hope for the pending winter storm. Map courtesy of Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems · Saint Louis University.


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