Short-term Wx: Since the historic and catastrophic flooding in late July that did so much damage to Ellicott City, the rain has basically shut off… Especially along and west of I-95. Case in point: through yesterday, the last 30 days — at BWI — we have rec’d 0.73″ of rain, a deficit of over 3″, or 19% of normal. CLICK HERE to see the full-sized 30-day PNP map, or look below.
We need rain. And it looks like we may get that… as an upper low stalls to our west this week. As a result, we will have a persistent warm, humid, southerly fetch (low spinning counterclockwise to our west puts us on the east side of the low, with a southerly wind) for the next several days. Between the humid, almost tropical air… the stationary low to our west, and favorable upper-level “dynamics”… models are targeting parts of the Mid-Atlantic for 3 to 6 inches of rain (potentially more) from Wednesday into Thursday night. The latest run of the Canadian Hi-Res regional has model over 10” in central and nrn MD, though admittedly this seems a bit extreme. But you get the idea. At the very least, I’d think about putting Rain-X on your windshield… once you’ve scrapped the dust and bugs carcasses off.
The good news with this… once we get past Thursday, the storm gets so wound up that it starts to pull dry air in from the west… and that dry air works in to the south and east side of the storm, giving us some hope for a decent weekend.
On to the tropics: A currently unnamed storm is developing in the Atlantic (to follow it, check out: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), and the long-range models are having all sorts of fun with this for the middle to end of next week. I won’t get everybody worked up by showing you forecasts for next Wednesday from the 06z GFS or the 00z CMC , but that would be irresponsible of me. The Burning Bush (European Model) is much slower… keeping the storm well to our south all the way out to Day 10 (240 hrs), fwiw.