I’m upping my forecast to 8-16″, which ironically is where I was a few forecast cycles ago. In short, a hard-hitting snowfall overnight should get us 6 to 12″ by morning. After a mid-day lull – which could feature some sleet and rain – a final round of 2-4″ of snow Thrs evening and night will top it all off.
As a side note, the NAM is all about a smack-down, get-your-tickets-now Snow-a-thon tonight. The NAM easily has 10-16″ by morning, with incredibly heavy snow (2-3″ per hour) falling between 3 and 8 a.m. This still seems incredibly overdone, but the NAM isn’t backing off. So if you wake up to a foot or more of snow, then you’ll know the NAM finally got one right.
I still think snow will mix with or change to sleet and rain/freezing rain during the day Thrs, but this also appears to be the time when the pcp will be the lightest… so we may not end up missing out on much. Areas well west and north of town, however, will maintain light to moderate snow during the day Thrs.
The real wildcard now is the trailing “parent” upper-air low, forecast to come thru during the afternoon and evening on Thrs. This may very well cause a new low to form right on the Delmarva Coast, and if this happens… well, you’ll know it. Strong winds and moderate to heavy wind-swept snow will redevelop in the afternoon and evening on Thrs. Some models are suggesting the snow Thrs evening could fall as heavy – even heavier – than what will fall tonight. This could easily add another 4 to 8″ of snow, if it forms in the right spot. For now, I’ll go with snow redeveloping Thrs afternoon- perhaps starting as sleet – and accumulating 2 to 4″.
Our first Nor’easter in years. Enjoy!