New Years Storm? Depends…

This image is a compilation of the GFS (top left) and its ensembles forecast valid for Thursday, Jan 2, at 1 pm (EST).  The approximate rain/snow line is highlighted in solid magenta, while precipitation over the preceding 6 hours is given in hundreds of inches (i.e. 25 = 0.25" liquid, which would equate to 2 to 3" of snow).  Some of the ensemble runs are slower, with the storm not yet fully developed, while others have a full-fledged winter storm about to unfold.  This image is courtesy of the PSU EWall.

This image is a compilation of the GFS (top left) and its ensembles forecast valid for Thursday, Jan 2, at 1 pm (EST). The approximate rain/snow line is highlighted in solid magenta, while precipitation over the preceding 6 hours is given in hundreds of inches (i.e. 25 = 0.25″ liquid, which would equate to 2 to 3″ of snow). Some of the ensemble runs are slower, with the storm not yet fully developed, while others have a full-fledged winter storm about to unfold. This image is courtesy of the PSU EWall.

 

The models have been targeting the first few days of the New Year for a potential winter storm along the East Coast.  But there is also utter chaos in the models, with everything from a major snowstorm to ice to rain to nothing.  To illustrate this, I grabbed the GFS ensemble forecast chart – courtesy of the PSU EWall – valid for Thursday, January 2, at 1 pm, EST (see above).  This is just one model and its tweaks and reruns, and does not account for what other models are saying for the same time.  I annotated the image to make it a bit easier to interpret.

 

 

 

 

 


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