In an “everything evens out” twist, appears the heaviest snow will be south of Baltimore with this one as cold, very dry air over nrn MD has cut into the pcp shield and caused the snow that was falling up this way to dissipate for now. If we had a high to our north, it would be irrelevant (like the blizzard), cos eventually the pcp would get up to nrn MD and probably even intensify. But with no high to our north, by the time the moisture eventually gets here our temperatures aloft will be above freezing, setting the stage for a very unpleasant and potentially hazardous afternoon.
So, in the south, with very cold air and very high snow to liquid ratios, 4 to 8″ a good bet well south of Baltimore. Already got a report of 5″ in Fredericksburg, VA south of DC. Impressive.
As you head north, snow will be less… 2 to 4″ still a good bet in the immediate Baltimore metro before changing to freezing rain in the early afternoon, though it’ll change to plain rain along and east of I-95. Driving will be tricky and ill advised in the afternoon when the freezing rain kicks in.
In nrn MD, I’ll trim back snowfall expectations to 1-3″, with 3″ being a bit of a long shot. What sucks up here is the new look of an extended period of freezing rain. Freezing rain during the late afternoon and continuing until about midnight, when temperatures will finally get above freezing. Driving in the north where there’s been a solid snowpack for a week will be hazardous during the afternoon and evening.
Man, this sucks.
Hopefully this will be it. Seriously. Never thought I’d write that, but I’m ready for spring, I really hate freezing rain. Like more than I hate stinkbugs. Speaking of stinkbugs, it’s been especially gratifying to catch the ones around the house over the past 3 days and toss them out into the frigid cold and onto the snow… Die, you little bastards, Die! Wooo ha ha ha!