Let the Games Begin

Looks like my Drought Monitor shift is going to do it’s thing…

Models have come in, and they’ve gone from no agreement to uncanny agreement, and the end result is a late-season winter storm.  The good news is you’ll have three days to fret about it… and I’ll have three days to keep changing the forecast on you.  It’s what we do.  I mean, seriously… if we gave you a forecast 3 days out that was a sure thing, well, then we’d become pretty irrelevant.  But it is a meteorologists’ job – nay their very duty – to keep changing the forecast, thereby increasing the need to keep listening!  Shhhh… it’s a trade secret.  😉

So the short version, as being portrayed in the latest guidance… Clouds increase Sunday as cold air funnels into the region during the day.  By Sunday evening, snow will develop in the north, while rain or snow develops closer to DC.  Mixed pcp will change to all snow Sunday night, lasting into Monday morning.  Too early to give amounts, but we are talking about accumulating snow… enough to disrupt travel Monday morning.

A Few Details:  Models are in very good agreement that after a nice Friday and Saturday, a late-season winter storm will impact the area Sunday into Monday, with a potential for a second round Monday night into Tuesday (not gonna worry about that right now).  This resembles our dealio from a couple Mondays ago where a dry, cold northwest wind caused rain to change to snow, but the high will be in a better position for snow this time… located more to our northeast over New England, vs to our northwest with the last one.  At the same time, a low will develop across the Delta and track to the Mid-Atlantic Coast.  How far north this low tracks will – as always – determine how much of what we get.  Pcp is slated to arrive during the late afternoon Sunday from the southwest, starting as snow in the north and rain fro D.C. south. Sunday night, pcp will intensify and change to all snow… before tapering off to flurries or drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday.

BTW, the GFS, which was insisting this storm would not happen, has gone all-in, and now has a notable snowstorm (4-8″) from D.C. north, with locally higher totals.
GFS liquid equivalent (in mm) as snow (initialized 12z 3/13); 25mm = 1

GFS liquid equivalent (in mm) as snow (initialized 12z 3/13); 25mm = 1″, which would be ~ 10″ assuming 10::1

The Canadian is calling the GFS’ bluff with it’s own version of all-in, with snow topping 10″.
CMC liquid equivalent (in mm) as snow (initialized 12z 3/13); 25mm = 1

CMC liquid equivalent (in mm) as snow (initialized 12z 3/13); 25mm = 1″, which would be ~ 10″ assuming 10::1

The European is a much tamer, lighter snowfall… ~ 2-4″.  If I had to offer up a prelim guess, this looks like a 3-6″ snowfall +/- 2″, with most of the accumulations on grass/elevated surfaces.  This time of year, any snow that falls during the day will have trouble sticking, and roads are now much warmer due to the higher sun angle.
Talk to you all tomorrow.

Stinkbugs, Weekend, and Next Week

Good morning,
Short Version:
– Wind on trash day blows.
– Stink Bugs suck, and they’re not going away.
– A winter storm may march through the area early next week.  Or not.
If you want it to seem like you’re working, keep on reading…Well… my plan for not using a trash can sort of worked.  Apparently, animals were having a field day with my and my neighbor’s trash.   If folks put a can out, it was blown over (courtesy of the winds noted in the image below)… and the animals ripped open the bags and feasted.  Or, in cases like mine, folks just put out a bag, and they tore into that too.  I’ll bet the racoons were dancing and high-fiving each other when the wind kicked up last night;  “YES!!!  Wind on Trash Day!!!  Buffet, here we come!!  Sharpen those claws, boys!”  OK, maybe not… but I’ll be they at least had grins on when they ventured out.

Preliminary Peak Winds (mph) over the preceding 24 hours (covering March 12-13, 2014)

Preliminary Peak Winds (mph) over the preceding 24 hours (covering March 12-13, 2014)

Inre to stinkbugs… many folks had sent me the article out of Virginia Tech talking about a 95% mortality rate.  I had – and still have – serious doubts that we lost 95% of our stinkbugs here, cos I know for a fact that they’re still popping up in the house whenever it gets warm.  And really, you just need two to survive to get it all going again.  Well, the Sun put up a nice story about it, and my fears are very well founded:


Cliff Notes: Anyone that thinks we’re done with stinkbugs is in for a rude surprise come spring and summer.  This winter may put a dent in them, but it will be temporary.

The weekend… Friday looks fantastic, and Saturday looks pretty nice too… altho a cold front will drift thru the area, but little if any pcp is expected.  This gets us to Sunday and early next week.  We’re watching a potential late-season winter storm for Sunday night into Monday, perhaps even Tuesday… but we really don’t much more than that right now.

Models agree that a storm will start to take shape along the Gulf Coast.  And that’s where the agreement ends.  The European has been flipping back and forth like Mary Lou Retton (OK, so that dates me a bit, I know…) between a hammering (storm comes up the coast) and nothing (storm stays to our south), with its latest iteration keeping the storm to our south.  The GFS is suppresses the storm to the south, but the tweaks-and-reruns of the GFS (called the Ensembles) almost all have the storm farther north, with some bringing snow and rain into the area by Sunday evening.  The Canadian has a crazy winter storm, with snow developing Sunday eve, changing to rain in the south Monday, followed by a bonus round of heavy snow Monday night into Tuesday.  At this point, who knows…  not me… altho I have this little vital piece of information:  I’m supposed to be the author of the U.S. Drought Monitor next week.

Why is this important?  Glad you asked.  Well, you see… we take 2-week shifts doing this task, twice a year.  My shifts as author are inevitably interrupted; I’ve had Furloughs, an Earthquake, Tropical Storms, I mean… you name it, it happens when I do the Drought Monitor.  Well, my January shift was – as expected – interrupted by 10″ of snow and a Federal Government shut down.  So, the one week I couldn’t do (because of snow) is to be made up next week… and that is as close to a stone-cold shoe-in-of-the-week lead-pipe iron-clad rock-solid lock as you can get for bad weather.  Or locusts.  Or pyroclastic flow.  Or a D.C. tsunami.  You get the picture.  So I feel confident the storm is coming.

To further illustrate:

Me:  Will my US Drought Monitor shift next week be impacted by a late-season winter storm in the Mid-Atlantic?

Magic-8 Ball:  YES  (All caps, just like the Magic-8 ball says)

There you have it.

Hello Wind!

Good morning,

While we won’t be getting any snow out of this storm, I thought it worthwhile to pass along some other tidbits regarding the storm and its associated cold front, which are slated to blast (and I do mean blast (like BLAST (maybe BLAST!!!))) through the area between ~ 7-10 pm.

First, temperatures… prior to the front coming through, we’ll be in the lower to middle 60s even as late as 7-8 pm (see image below).

NAM sfc temperature forecast (00z run) for 8 pm, Wednesday night (3/12).  Image courtesy of the PSU EWall.

NAM sfc temperature forecast (00z run) for 8 pm, Wednesday night (3/12). Image courtesy of the PSU EWall.

Then, WHAM!  POW! KABOOM!.. three hours later, by 11 pm, models have us in the 20s…
NAM sfc temperature forecast (00z run) for 11 pm, Wednesday night (3/12).  Image courtesy of the PSU EWall.

NAM sfc temperature forecast (00z run) for 11 pm, Wednesday night (3/12). Image courtesy of the PSU EWall.

…and in the lower to middle teens by Thursday morning.  Ooof.

Next, the wind.  Our south wind during the day today will be no slouch… increasing to 15 to 25 mph… but these will pale in comparison to what’s behind the cold front.  Behind the front, winds will literally howl, with model estimates sustained of 25-35 mph with higher gusts, starting shortly after 8 pm and lasting well into the night.

NAM prxoy for sfc winds (~30') for 11 pm, Wednesday night (3/12).  Wind speeds are in knots... for simplicity, you can probably just assume these speeds will equate to mile per hour at the surface.  Image courtesy of the PSU EWall.

NAM proxy for sfc winds (10 meters, or ~30′) for 11 pm, Wednesday night (3/12). Wind speeds are in knots; for simplicity, you can probably just assume these speeds will equate to mile per hour at the surface. Image courtesy of the PSU EWall.

They’ll subside somewhat by tomorrow (relatively speaking), but still gusty.  This has power outages written all over it… especially in areas where the ground has begin to thaw.  Plus, we likely still have branches just hanging by a thread from our February ice storm.

Yup… a fun-filled night.  I’m gonna pass on putting out a trash can… I’ll just put everything in a big heavy-duty bag, cos I know for sure our can would be a goner if I put it out.  Maybe this will blow all the stink bugs that have started crawling out of our attic into the Atlantic.  one can only hope.

Next week, still monitoring the chance for a late winter storm Monday, but there is next to no consensus in the models yet.  I’ll just leave it at that for now.

Take care.


Stay On Target…

Subject Line is courtesy of our 5-year old and his affinity for Star Wars, movies I’m getting to watch over and over… applies to this fcst too (Although, I have to wonder if they were able to build the original Death Star with a gravity beam to pull ships in, why didn’t they… never mind.  Sorry. )

Short Version:  A late winter storm is on the menu for Monday morning as cold air pouring into the area behind a strong cold front will cause rain to change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  Models still have notably different pcp types and accumulations, but if I had to pick a number 72 hours out, I’m thinking 3 to 6″ of snow on top of a layer of sleet and perhaps some freezing rain.

The It’s Friday and Reading This Will Make It Look Like I’m Working Version:  I hate these Cold-air vs Pcp races, and it’s what we’ve got going.  Warm front will lift north on Saturday – with little if any pcp – and then push back south as a cold front on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the little swirly-whirly readily apparent in today’s satellite loop off the coast of California…


… will zip east, and use the cold front as a roadway to the Atlantic Coast.  As I’ve said probably too much already, the final placement of the front will make or break this forecast.  If the front ends up to the north in MD, we get rain; over central and srn VA, we get heavy ice and snow; and if it ends up over NC, we get light snow.  The consensus as of Friday is for option 2.

So, a warm Sunday will come to a crashing end late Sunday afternoon and evening.  Rain will arrive from the west during the evening, and then the race is on.  As cold air gets firmly established at the surface, but warm air remains entrenched aloft (~ 5,000 ft up), we’ll see freezing rain and sleet develop.  By early morning Monday, sleet and snow will likely become the dominant pcp type as cold air gradually wins out, with the change over occurring from north to south.  Pcp will be heaviest in the morning hours Monday, and be over by Monday afternoon.  I’m still bothered by the fact that we’ll be waiting for cold air to get here… these can be really tricky, and this is far from a done deal.  Prelim snow accumulation will – if this fcst holds – be on the order of 3 to 6″.  I also think sleet will be the other dominant pcp type, with hopefully not too much freezing rain.  Here are a few model forecasts…

NAM:  If you’ve been hankering for freezing rain and sleet, than this is your model.  It has very little snow, and actually has very little pcp south of DC.  It does suggest a heavy dose of sleet… with snow confined to far nrn and western MD and srn PA.  It kinda sucks, actually.

NAM Pcp Type for Monday morning... mostly sleet (in red).

NAM Pcp Type for Monday morning… mostly sleet (in red).


The GFS:  GFS has held steadfast that this would be a cold event.  The GFS has a coating of freezing rain and sleet, followed by 6 to 8″ of snow.  For everyone.

Snow (blue) is farther south in the GFS as of Monday morning, 7 am, EST.

Snow (blue) is farther south in the GFS as of Monday morning, 7 am, EST.


The Canadian:  The Canadian is colder but lighter… with a bit of light rain, followed by sleet and snow.  It’s pretty evenly split on how much of each we get, with ~ 0.25″ of sleet and another 0.25″ falling as snow, which would get us ~ 1-3″ of snow on top of a solid base of sleet.

Canadian Model pcp type is mostly snow, but lighter.

Canadian Model pcp type is sleet, changing to snow shortly after 7 am, EST on Monday..


The Navy NAVGEM:  This model went from being rock-solid sleet and snow to wavering like a drunken sailor; it offered up a warmer, rainier solution overnight, but has now come back in line with mostly sleet and snow Monday morning with the latest morning model run.

And now… down off the mountain, the moment you’ve been waiting for…

The European Model:  The European has come in surprisingly colder, with a period of moderate to heavy snow in the late morning on Monday.  The European has rain arriving earlier on Sunday, so we don’t get quite as warm as the NAM.  The model then changes rain to sleet and freezing rain shortly after Midnight, and then snow during the pre-dawn hours…. with a solid 4 to 7″ of snow across the entire region during the morning Monday.  It actually has the heaviest snow (locally more than 8″) falling south and east of D.C…

How you’ll know which way this is trending:  If it’s 60° and sunny on Sunday… that’s not a good sign… and the warmer, uglier NAM would be on track to verify.  If clouds and showers arrive during the afternoon, then the colder, snowier European and GFS are on track.

I’ll bother y’all some more about later.

Oh, and next Friday… more fun!

Early Thoughts on Monday

For anyone looking to head out early and take advantage of some great sunbathing weather… instead of getting more confident as we get closer to the event, models are now beginning to stray, and now muddy the waters with a new twist:  Warm with showers.  I’m not gonna commit to this new wrinkle until some more data rolls in.  For now, assume we’re still on for rain changing to ice and snow on Monday, potentially heavy.  Prepare for the worst, and be thankful if we don’t get an ice storm.

Early guidance is rolling in, and the big issue continues to be when will the cold front come through and how far south will it get.  Some of the high-resolution Short-Ranges Ensembles Forecast data (SREFs) have offered a totally new twist, and that is the front never gets south of the MD/PA line Sunday into Monday… and we get nothing except some rain as the front finally comes through Monday.  If this is right, then this would be a big to-do about nothing.  Here’s the SREF’s pcp type for Monday at 1 pm; Green is rain, orange is mix/ice/ blue is snow:

SREFs Pcp Type for Monday at 1 pm, EST.  Image courtesy of the PSU eWALL.

SREFs Pcp Type for Monday at 1 pm, EST. Image courtesy of the PSU eWALL.

The latest NAM has a really nasty ice storm, with snow falling in the far north along the PA as cold air pushes south overnight Sunday into Monday.  Honestly, I hate “races” like this… where we are waiting for cold air to arrive while pcp pushes in; models often over-state the cold air’s arrival, as we saw with a storm earlier in February where far nrn MD got socked with 4 to 8″ of snow and the rest of us got 35-degree rain.

Anyhow, I’m not even close to offering a final take, especially now with the first set of data suggesting nothing but just plain rain.  The GFS – IMHO – has been consistent with its handling of this storm, offering up a rain to ice to snow fcst, while the Canadian is in line with this but a bit colder and snowier..  The European is flipping forecasts like a line-order cook at McDonald’s (altho, maybe that’s not a good analogy… since I don’t think they cook anything onsite anymore; maybe I should go with “Boardwalk Burger and Fries“, but that doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.  I’ll have to think this over.) … anyway, the Burning Bush over the last three cycles went from a warm rainy fcst to heavy snow to northern snow and srn rain.

I’ll ping you this afternoon with something far more concrete. Well, concrete that has been freshly poured but far from cured… still soft as mud, actually.

Snow Burst Tuesday Morning

The hits just keep on coming!

We have another shot – a good shot at that – of accumulating snow tonight into Tuesday morning.  This will be a quick hitter, but snow will likely fall heavily enough to drop a quick 2 to 5″ across much of the region, although along and east of I-95 sleet or rain could cut back on totals.  Also, down toward D.C. – esp south and east of D.C., warmer air aloft will likely cause pcp to fall as sleet or rain.  D.C. looks like it will be mostly snow, but awfully close – per normal – to the rain/snow line.

Details… A strong upper-air disturbance (aka “vort”) will barrel across the Midwest, crossing our region in the early morning hours.  While I’ve heard TV mets call this a warm front, this snow will be more a courtesy of the “vort” than the warm front that it will be dragging across the region.  The snow will start after 1 a.m., and end shortly after 7 a.m.

What’s starting to really bother me about this forecast is many of the high-resolution, short-term forecast models show the snow rapidly intensifying as it comes through.  If you buy the NAM (deja’ vu, anyone?!), snow will really crank up… and totals could easily top 5″ in northeastern MD (Harford, Cecil Counties).  Some of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) have more than 0.50″ liquid across most of central MD and nrn VA, which would suggest higher totals region wide.  And this morning’s Canadian Regional model has 10-15 mm  (gotta love the metric system!) as snow, which in Americanese is 0.4 to 0.6″ liquid, which would get us 4 to 6″, possibly a bit more. (see image below)

Given the speed of the system, I think 2 to 5″ is a good bet.  It will be over by 7 a.m. just about everywhere, but given this is our diurnally coldest time of the day coupled with an already-deep snowpack on the ground, this snow will stick and pile up immediately.  I suspect the morning commute is gonna take it on the chin.  By mid-day, we should see temps jump into the mid- to upper 30s in central and nrn MD, and lowers 40s to the south.

We are still looking at a warm up for the end of the week, but this too seems to be slipping somewhat in the latest models.  Regardless, enjoy it.  Long-range forecast data is a slam dunk for a brutal return to winter for the last week of the month.

From the not-really-weather department…

The Good News:  Our boys are getting exhausted trudging the hill out back, and are sleeping in until 9 am… unheard of!

The Bad News:  The rest of us are exhausted from shoveling and all other associated snow-related activities, and could really stand to sleep in until 9 a.m.!

The Good News:  This snow cover is providing a most rewarding, somewhat sadistic way to dispose of stink bugs:  Be free, you little bastards!!! Wooo ha ha ha… (out the door they go, into their cold, icy tomb…)
The Bad News:  The rest of the stink bugs are likely watching me do this from the attic, taking little notes.
The Good News: Dog poop is really easy to spot and clean up.
The Bad News:  Our dog will only go where I’ve cleared a spot (talk about fickle) or the boys have played and packed it down… so it’s like a poop mine field right now.
The Good News:  We’re half way through February!

The Bad News:  We’re only half way through February.

Friday Follow Up

Back from snow removal…  quick glance, and not much has changed inre to Saturday. We’re looking at a period of light snow, starting tomorrow morning and lasting until about mid-day.  Accumulations will be light, 1-2″… altho there could be as much as 3″ in the far north.  Will still need to keep an eye on the new coastal low as it spins up, but right now it appears that this low will mostly bypass us.

In the spirit of the Olympics, regarding our big snow, if I had to say which models did the best…

Overall, First Place goes to the Canadian Regional Model, which did an excellent job with p-types, timing, and intensity, shining especially bright with the last part of the storm.  It’s total “liquid as snow” was also impressive. It did not have the snow quite as heavy as the NAM with round 1, but it nailed the Thrs eve snow.

I’d give the NAM second place, a close second at that.  It nailed the first part of the storm, which was pretty remarkable… but it failed pretty badly with the intensity and placement of the last round of snow during the eve and night last night.  It was also too cold, as the rain/snow line worked farther west (per the Canadian) than the NAM indicated.

For the Bronze Medal, I’d give it to the European.  The European did a real nice job with the overall placement of the weather features, but came up woefully short on pcp amounts, especially snowfall.

I’d give Honorable Mention to the Navy NAVGEM model, which did OK with the first round of snow, but came through real strong with the last round of snow.

And the GFS… it was late to the party, and then was too cold when it finally showed up.

That should do it.

Happy Valentine’s Day!!  (well, to the ladies. To the guys, Happy Friday the 14th!)


For anyone still awake…

I’m upping my forecast to 8-16″, which ironically is where I was a few forecast cycles ago.  In short, a hard-hitting snowfall overnight should get us 6 to 12″ by morning.  After a mid-day lull – which could feature some sleet and rain – a final round of 2-4″ of snow Thrs evening and night will top it all off.

As a side note, the NAM is all about a smack-down, get-your-tickets-now Snow-a-thon tonight.  The NAM easily has 10-16″ by morning, with incredibly heavy snow (2-3″ per hour) falling between 3 and 8 a.m.  This still seems incredibly overdone, but the NAM isn’t backing off.  So if you wake up to a foot or more of snow, then you’ll know the NAM finally got one right.

I still think snow will mix with or change to sleet and rain/freezing rain during the day Thrs, but this also appears to be the time when the pcp will be the lightest… so we may not end up missing out on much.  Areas well west and north of town, however, will maintain light to moderate snow during the day Thrs.

The real wildcard now is the trailing “parent” upper-air low, forecast to come thru during the afternoon and evening on Thrs.  This may very well cause a new low to form right on the Delmarva Coast, and if this happens… well, you’ll know it.  Strong winds and moderate to heavy wind-swept snow will redevelop in the afternoon and evening on Thrs. Some models are suggesting the snow Thrs evening could fall as heavy – even heavier – than what will fall tonight.  This could easily add another 4 to 8″ of snow, if it forms in the right spot.  For now, I’ll go with snow redeveloping Thrs afternoon- perhaps starting as sleet – and accumulating 2 to 4″.

Our first Nor’easter in years.  Enjoy!

If-Then-Else Adjustments

Data rolling in, and there are a few tweaks.  I’m gonna give you the short version, and then break this down by time..

Short Version:  I’m upping my forecast… for 6 to 12″ of snow along and west of I-95.  However, the IF-THEN element still holds.  IF we stay all snow, THEN I’d go higher… 10-18″, perhaps as much as 20″.  But it does not appear we’re gonna pull this all-snow stunt off.  Rather, warm air will get dragged into the storm aloft (~5,000 ft up) during the day Thrs, and change this over the a mix or rain, cutting into snow totals.  Snow arrives tonight between 7 and 10 pm, and will fall heavily into the morning.  Snow will then change over to sleet, freezing rain, and rain from southeast to northwest during the morning, altho far nrn and western areas may very well stay all snow.  In these all-snow areas, at least 10″ of snow is probable.  During the afternoon, the trailing “parent” upper-air low will swing thru, and this will act to restart the snow across most of the region in the late afternoon, lasting into the evening… dropping several more inches of snow east of the Blue Ridge.

Part 1:  The first part of the snow is a slug of moisture coming up the coast ahead of the low, which will run into the cold air entrenched over the region.  This snow will start between 7 and 10 pm tonight, and rapidly intensify.  This moderate to heavy snow will last into Thrs morning, and will account for 6 to 12″ of snowfall across much of the region.

Part 2:  As the low comes up the coast, warm air will get pulled into the system… and a change over will likely occur along the I-95 corridor.  Most of the latest models show this happening by ~ 10am – Noon.  The mix/rain lasts into the afternoon, and if this is correct, not only would we not see any add’l snow accumulation, but we’d lose snow due to melting and settling.  If we stay all snow (and areas to the north and west may very well stay all snow), then another 2 to 4″ would fall.

Part 3:  The new wrinkle… as the upper-air “parent” batch of energy swings thru during the afternoon, the models now show a second, new area of low pressure forming just east of the Delmarva.  This is a huge wild card, and would result in snow redeveloping and intensifying, especially east of the mountains.  Could also be sleet, depending on how much warm air we’ve dragged into the storm.  This part of the storm would start Thrs afternoon and last into the evening, ending ~ Midnight.  We’re gonna have to keep a real close eye on this.

Well, I’ll probably tweak this a bit when the other “later” models roll in, but I think this is a pretty good bet.  6 to 12″, and if we stay all snow then expect more.  Could top it off with another bonus round Thrs eve.


Finally starting to see a consensus evolve, at least with the first two parts of the storm.  However, this remains and “If… Then… Else…” forecast.

IF we stay all snow on Thursday, THEN we’re looking at 8 to 16″, perhaps as much as 20″… ELSE, if rain or sleet enters the equation per warm air aloft, then we’re looking at 4 to 8″, perhaps as much as 10″.

Last night’s model data didn’t do a whole lot to my thought process regarding this, but some clarification on the three parts of the storm:

1) The first part of the storm – Weds night into early Thrs – will feature some pretty heavy snow.  This seems like as close to a slam dunk as you can get, without jinxing the whole thing.  Snow will arrive between 7 and 10 pm, perhaps a bit later in the far north.

2) The second part of the storm – Thrs mid-morning and early afternoon – is still the most uncertain… as warm air gets pulled into the storm aloft (~5,000 ft up).  It will remain plenty cold at the ground for snow, but if the warm air aloft works overhead, then bye bye snow… and hello sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  The overnight model guidance shows this line setting up somewhere between the Bay and the Blue Ridge.  The NAM, UKMET, and Navy Models keep the warm layer (temps about freezing aloft) to our east, and are mostly all snow.  And lots of it.  The European and Canadian pull the warm air aloft almost to the Blue Ridge, so sleet and rain cut into snowfall totals across much of the Piedmont and I-95 corridor.

3) Part three is courtesy of the parent upper-air low… the feature at the jet stream level that helped spawn this whole thing.  It comes thru Thrs afternoon and evening, and will be good for a bonus round of light to moderate snow in the afternoon/evening on Thursday.  Now we’ve got some models showing this feature spawning a new coastal low just east of the Delmarva, which certainly could complicate things.  Something we’ll have to monitor.