We have another shot – a good shot at that – of accumulating snow tonight into Tuesday morning. This will be a quick hitter, but snow will likely fall heavily enough to drop a quick 2 to 5″ across much of the region, although along and east of I-95 sleet or rain could cut back on totals. Also, down toward D.C. – esp south and east of D.C., warmer air aloft will likely cause pcp to fall as sleet or rain. D.C. looks like it will be mostly snow, but awfully close – per normal – to the rain/snow line.
What’s starting to really bother me about this forecast is many of the high-resolution, short-term forecast models show the snow rapidly intensifying as it comes through. If you buy the NAM (deja’ vu, anyone?!), snow will really crank up… and totals could easily top 5″ in northeastern MD (Harford, Cecil Counties). Some of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) have more than 0.50″ liquid across most of central MD and nrn VA, which would suggest higher totals region wide. And this morning’s Canadian Regional model has 10-15 mm (gotta love the metric system!) as snow, which in Americanese is 0.4 to 0.6″ liquid, which would get us 4 to 6″, possibly a bit more. (see image below)
Given the speed of the system, I think 2 to 5″ is a good bet. It will be over by 7 a.m. just about everywhere, but given this is our diurnally coldest time of the day coupled with an already-deep snowpack on the ground, this snow will stick and pile up immediately. I suspect the morning commute is gonna take it on the chin. By mid-day, we should see temps jump into the mid- to upper 30s in central and nrn MD, and lowers 40s to the south.
We are still looking at a warm up for the end of the week, but this too seems to be slipping somewhat in the latest models. Regardless, enjoy it. Long-range forecast data is a slam dunk for a brutal return to winter for the last week of the month.
From the not-really-weather department…
The Bad News: The rest of us are exhausted from shoveling and all other associated snow-related activities, and could really stand to sleep in until 9 a.m.!
The Bad News: We’re only half way through February.