Snow Burst Tuesday Morning

The hits just keep on coming!

We have another shot – a good shot at that – of accumulating snow tonight into Tuesday morning.  This will be a quick hitter, but snow will likely fall heavily enough to drop a quick 2 to 5″ across much of the region, although along and east of I-95 sleet or rain could cut back on totals.  Also, down toward D.C. – esp south and east of D.C., warmer air aloft will likely cause pcp to fall as sleet or rain.  D.C. looks like it will be mostly snow, but awfully close – per normal – to the rain/snow line.

Details… A strong upper-air disturbance (aka “vort”) will barrel across the Midwest, crossing our region in the early morning hours.  While I’ve heard TV mets call this a warm front, this snow will be more a courtesy of the “vort” than the warm front that it will be dragging across the region.  The snow will start after 1 a.m., and end shortly after 7 a.m.

What’s starting to really bother me about this forecast is many of the high-resolution, short-term forecast models show the snow rapidly intensifying as it comes through.  If you buy the NAM (deja’ vu, anyone?!), snow will really crank up… and totals could easily top 5″ in northeastern MD (Harford, Cecil Counties).  Some of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) have more than 0.50″ liquid across most of central MD and nrn VA, which would suggest higher totals region wide.  And this morning’s Canadian Regional model has 10-15 mm  (gotta love the metric system!) as snow, which in Americanese is 0.4 to 0.6″ liquid, which would get us 4 to 6″, possibly a bit more. (see image below)

Given the speed of the system, I think 2 to 5″ is a good bet.  It will be over by 7 a.m. just about everywhere, but given this is our diurnally coldest time of the day coupled with an already-deep snowpack on the ground, this snow will stick and pile up immediately.  I suspect the morning commute is gonna take it on the chin.  By mid-day, we should see temps jump into the mid- to upper 30s in central and nrn MD, and lowers 40s to the south.

We are still looking at a warm up for the end of the week, but this too seems to be slipping somewhat in the latest models.  Regardless, enjoy it.  Long-range forecast data is a slam dunk for a brutal return to winter for the last week of the month.

From the not-really-weather department…

The Good News:  Our boys are getting exhausted trudging the hill out back, and are sleeping in until 9 am… unheard of!

The Bad News:  The rest of us are exhausted from shoveling and all other associated snow-related activities, and could really stand to sleep in until 9 a.m.!

The Good News:  This snow cover is providing a most rewarding, somewhat sadistic way to dispose of stink bugs:  Be free, you little bastards!!! Wooo ha ha ha… (out the door they go, into their cold, icy tomb…)
The Bad News:  The rest of the stink bugs are likely watching me do this from the attic, taking little notes.
The Good News: Dog poop is really easy to spot and clean up.
The Bad News:  Our dog will only go where I’ve cleared a spot (talk about fickle) or the boys have played and packed it down… so it’s like a poop mine field right now.
The Good News:  We’re half way through February!

The Bad News:  We’re only half way through February.


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