Snow Monday, Rain Tuesday

Happy Valentine’s Day to all the ladies out there!
And to the guys, Happy Sunday After The Super Bowl.

It appears our “Squeeze winter into Four Weeks” bonanza is almost over, with one final hurrah. Models in very good agreement the potential for a major winter storm has evaporated, all this despite the fact I’m doing US Drought Monitor (a virtual lock for major storms, earthquakes, or furloughs). Nevertheless, 2-part storm coming, with snow on Monday and rain on Tuesday.

Monday’s snow will be courtesy of an approaching warm front. With plenty of cold air in place, this will start as snow everywhere during the morning commute and continue for much of the day. Most guidance shows 2-4″ before snow changes to freezing rain and rain during the afternoon and evening from south to north as a brisk south wind pulls in warmer air. The GFS is faster with the changeover and is more like 1-2″, while the NAM is a bit slower and heavier with the snow, and has some getting 4-6″, with even more out to the west of Frederick. By evening, it should all be rain or freezing rain.

Monday night, the warm front lifts north into PA and the pcp shifts to our north along with it. Any lingering freezing rain will change to plain cold rain east of the mountains, while freezing rain could linger out in the colder mountain valleys.

Tuesday, a low will ride up the mountains, putting us on the warm eastern side of the storm. With no high to our north to lock in the cold air and a storm track to our west that puts us on the warm eastern side of the low, this is an all-rain event… and potentially heavy rain at that. Tuesday’s temperatures are expected to climb into the 40s east of the mountains, and 50s near the bay. Even west of the mountains we should see temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

After that, I do believe we’re done for a while. Looks like we squeezed a winter’s worth of snow into 4 weeks… all this after the warmest December on record.

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