Enough of the model data has rolled in… the snow is trending toward the low end…. but there’s still a good shot at a coating to an inch, maybe 2 on grassy surfaces. The lack of a decent snowfall is pointing back to the lack of a western U.S. ridge, which in turn makes and East Coast trof a no-go… which in turn makes snow a no-go, or nearly a no-go. The CONUS is about 1 full wavelength wide atmospherically, so we typically get a ying and yang setup: a ridge/warm over the west and a trof/cold over the east, or vice versa. But with our current pattern, there’s no ridge, so now downstream trof. Fascinating, huh? Aren’t you glad you’re on this list?! If your friends or family tell you we’re going to get 3″ of snow tonight, you can look them right in the eye and say “The wavelength is all wrong. Duhhh….” and roll your eyes and walk away (or duck).
Interestingly, the Saturday clipper has become the more interesting of the two in terms of snow potential, but as with most clippers it’ll not a big or widespread snowfall. Currently appears to be targeting the northern half of MD and srn PA with a coating to a couple inches. Will sort this one out a bit later.